Paper industry: the worst is over.
recently, we had an in-depth exchange with Mr. Ying Guangdong, deputy general manager and chief engineer of sun paper. Mr. Ying Guangdong is an authority in the domestic paper industry and expressed his personal views on the current paper industry and the future development direction of sun paper. We have combed the relevant contents for your reference
the output growth rate of 4.6% set in the 12th Five Year Plan of the paper industry is a rational index
the 12th Five Year Plan of the paper industry sets the annual output growth rate of 4.6% in the next five years, which should be a more rational index for the relatively difficult industry at present. At present, a prominent problem in the paper industry is overcapacity, such as the excess paper five years ago and the excess coated paper in the last two years. Their supply and demand imbalance is obvious
affected by the overall economic environment, paper enterprises are in difficulties
the current economic environment is relatively poor, and the paper industry has encountered unprecedented difficulties. It can be seen from the published performance of the listed paper companies last year that the profitability of the listed paper companies has declined significantly since the second half of last year, especially in the fourth quarter of last year, the whole industry suffered losses. The electronic tensile testing machine of some large paper enterprises is a high-precision, high-tech material testing equipment. The inventory situation is quite high, far exceeding the normal inventory level of the industry, and there is a large decline in downstream demand. From the perspective of startup rate, the startup rate before and after the Spring Festival is at a historically low level, and large-scale downtime is common in major manufacturers of coated paper and carton board. The situation of small enterprises is even worse. Many enterprises have broken capital chains, serious losses and unsustainable operations
the implementation effect of eliminating backward production capacity will be better than before
in the case of poor overall situation of the industry, it is a good time for leading enterprises to adjust their product structure and highlight their advantages. The output growth rate of 4.6% includes the elimination of 10million tons of backward production capacity, which should be better than the previous situation
mergers and acquisitions may increase in the future
there may be more cases of mergers and acquisitions, because under the downturn of the industry, the price of paper enterprises will also be much cheaper. International mergers and acquisitions by domestic enterprises may also occur. In Europe, there are many target enterprises with an option of EUR 230 million
the fixed asset investment of large paper enterprises will tend to be conservative
the fixed asset investment of the industry will also tend to be conservative in the next few years. According to the current disclosure of relevant enterprises, the projects of Nine Dragons Paper in Tianjin and Chongqing have been postponed, including the runner and runner) when the maximum injection capacity of the injection molding machine is 50-80%, the project of Bohui in Dafeng, Jiangsu Province has also been postponed, and the project of APP in Guangxi and Ningbo has a similar situation
coated paper is in the worst condition, and white cardboard is relatively good.
coated paper has become the most difficult paper at present due to the centralized release of production capacity. Before 2010, the capacity of coated paper was about 4.2 million tons, and 4.8 million tons of new capacity was added last year and the previous two years, which completely changed the supply-demand relationship of coated paper
box board paper and corrugated paper also have overcapacity, which is also confirmed by the large-scale shutdown around the Spring Festival this year
at present, small paper mills are facing great difficulties. Due to their small production capacity and low restructuring price, some enterprises will gradually withdraw from the industry
the current situation of white cardboard is relatively the best. The projects planned by several large paper mills have been postponed for various reasons. This year, only 400000 tons of new production capacity cooperated by sun and IP has been put into productionAt present, five of the top10 global instrument companies have reached the diagnostic business
the replenishment of inventory factor has driven the paper price up "As long as consumers buy plastic bags from supermarkets, the white cardboard of some paper enterprises increased by 200 yuan in February this year, and the cultural paper such as double offset paper increased by 100200 yuan, which has been accepted by the market. It is difficult to judge whether this situation has occurred or not, but the situation of dealers replenishing inventory is relatively clear. Many dealers have felt the rise in pulp price, and they judge that the pulp and paper price should be at a low point, so It is more active to replenish inventory, including coated paper with the worst supply-demand relationship, which has also seen some replenishment of inventory recently
it is less likely that the pulp price will rise sharply
generally speaking, it is less likely that the pulp price will rise sharply. Since the beginning of this year, the price of broad-leaved pulp has increased by $4050, and the price of coniferous pulp has increased by $2030. To further increase, it needs to be accepted by the downstream. Specifically, due to the sufficient supply of broad-leaved pulp, the increase should be relatively limited. This year and next, there will be 3million tons of new capacity in South America. In the future, there will be about 5million tons of capacity to be built in South America and Australia. The expansion speed is very fast. The situation of coniferous pulp is slightly different. Because its raw material coniferous fast-growing forest has more restrictions on planting, which is mainly concentrated in North America and Russia, its capacity expansion is slow, and the relationship between supply and demand remains good. It is expected that the price of coniferous pulp may rise significantly. Overall, 650 dollars should be a relatively high point of broad-leaved pulp
inventory of the industry chain
in the fourth quarter of last year, the inventory of paper mills was generally at a high level, while the inventory of dealers and downstream printing plants was at a very low level. It is expected that inventory replenishment will occur in the future. Due to the tight capital chain of paper enterprises, their stock of raw pulp will not be too much
the most difficult time of the industry has passed.
the fourth quarter of last year should be the most difficult time of the industry. The de stocking of dealers and downstream printing enterprises is very obvious. They are waiting for the continued decline of prices, which is very similar to the situation in the second half of 2008. At present, the industry has felt some recovery through replenishment of inventory. It is judged that the overall situation in the first half of 2012 should be better than that in the second half of last year